基于实际服务人口的多尺度人地耦合机制与优化调控研究

实际服务人口已逐渐成为国土空间规划、城市规划和管理响应的新范畴，如何通过其规模结构、空间分布、行为特征，优化配置稀缺的建设用地资源是高质量城镇化的重要命题。本课题以流空间理论为指引，凝练“常住+短期驻留”的实际服务人口内涵；融合手机信令、土地利用、人口普查等多源数据，研发实际服务人口的典型人群识别模型；基于“人口-行为-土地”的空间匹配关系，以南京都市圈为例，测度典型人群与建设用地的耦合特征，比较城镇-农村、本地-外来、常住-短期驻留等典型人群与建设用地耦合差异；借助地理加权回归模型、多水平模型，厘清实际服务人口与建设用地耦合机制，剖析耦合机制在“都市圈-城市-县区-地块”的尺度效应，揭示其耦合机制的多层次性、嵌套性特征。通过开展面向实际服务人口的建设用地供需平衡分析，探究“多尺度-多情景”下南京都市圈“人-地”优化调控路径，为城市提升综合服务质量和国土空间格局优化提供政策建议。

The actual population has gradually become a new category of territorial spatial planning, urban planning and management response. It is an important proposition for high-quality urbanization, how to optimize the allocation of scarce construction land resources through the scale structure, spatial distribution and behavioral characteristics of the actual population is an important proposition for high-quality urbanization. Our research is guided by the theory of flow space, define the meaning of actual population, including permanent and short-term resident populations. By integrating multi-source data such as mobile phone signaling, land use and census, the typical population identification model for the actual population is developed. By integrating multi-source data such as mobile phone signaling, land use and census, a model for identifying typical population is developed. Based on the spatial matching relationship of “ population-behavior-land use ”, taking Nanjing metropolitan area as an example. We measures the coupling characteristics of typical population and construction land. The coupling differences between urban - rural, local - outside, permanent resident - short-term resident and construction land will be compared. With the help of geographically weighted regression model and multi-level model, the coupling mechanism of actual population and construction land can be clarified. We will analyze the scale effect of coupling mechanism in "metropolitan area - city - functional area - land". The supply and demand balance analysis of construction land for the actual population is carried out to explore the “ population-land ” recoupling path of Nanjing metropolitan area under the “ multi-scale-multi-scenario ”, so as to provide references for improving the comprehensive service quality and optimizing the spatial pattern of land.