机构投资者对公司现金分红的治理效应：策略与机制

提高直接融资比重是党的十九届五中全会对“十四五”战略规划提出的重要建议之一，具体要求包括推动上市公司提高质量和大力推进长期资金入市。两个具体任务的提出与当前我国资本市场存在的长期机构投资者占比较低和公司现金分红水平较低两大瓶颈问题密切相关，前者制约了机构投资者对公司质量和现金分红的治理效应，后者则不利于吸引长期机构投资者入市。为了深化学界和监管层对这两大瓶颈问题的认识，寻求突破瓶颈的政策建议，本项目将首先基于“治理权衡”视角检验机构投资者选择长期或短期治理方式的影响因素；然后考察机构投资者退出和退出威胁能否通过“财富—股价敏感性”机制对现金分红产生影响；最后分析，当机构投资者无法决定现金分红议案表决结果时，其投票能否通过“控股股东声誉”、“董事声誉”和“监管压力”机制影响现金分红。基于这些研究，本项目不仅将弥补现有文献的不足，还将为顺利完成提高直接融资比重的战略目标提供政策参考。

For the country's Fourteenth Five-Year Plan period, the decision to increase the proportion of direct financing is deliberated and adopted at the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the CPC. Specifically, the country needs to improve the quality of listed firms and increase the proportion of long-term fund. The proposal of such two tasks is related to the following main problems: the proportion of long-term institutional investors and the ratio of firms’ cash dividends are both low. Obviously, a lower proportion of long-term institutional investors is going to reduce the effect of external governance, and a lower ratio of cash dividends will induce the myopic behavior of institutional investors. In order to intensify our understanding about and find out solution to the above problems, this project firstly investigates the impact of firms’ and institutional investors’ characteristics on the selection of governance strategies base on the “governance trade-off” theory; second, this project will investigate the influence of institutional investors’ exit and threats of exit on firms’ cash dividends and the “sensitiveness of wealth to stock price” mechanism; finally this project will analyze the impact of institutional investors voting on cash dividends given the fact that minorities have little decisive effect on the proposal, and the “blockholder reputation”, “board director reputation” and “regulation pressure” mechanism will be tested. Based on the above analyses, this project will not only contribute to the literatures, but also provide insightful suggestions for regulators to fulfill the plan to increase the proportion of direct financing for the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan period.