“直播+”背景下考虑过度自信的电商供应链信息披露机制研究

新冠疫情的爆发加上5G技术的推广，以“直播带货”为代表的“直播+电商”新业态得到爆发式发展，但也暴露出诸如夸大其词、以次充好、销量造假等问题，制约着我国直播电商的健康发展。考虑到信息不对称和决策者行为偏好的影响，本项目从信息价值共创视角对由品牌商、主播、平台渠道方组成的三级电商供应链信息披露、激励机制设计、利润分配以及市场监管等问题展开系统研究。首先，从决策者行为偏好出发，构建基于多主体过度自信的效用刻画模型，研究过度自信对直播电商供应链信息披露决策的影响。其次，从信息价值共创的角度，研究直播电商双渠道供应链混合信息披露决策与激励机制设计，提出基于Shapley值的利润公平分配方案。最后，从长远发展视角考虑政府规制的影响，构建基于重复博弈的多主体信息披露演化博弈模型，探究随时间推移而实现市场规范化的监管机制。项目研究成果对促进直播电商供应链信息资源整合、绩效改善及其稳健发展具有重要的意义。

With the outbreak of the COVID-19 and the advancement of 5G technology, the new business format of the "Live streaming + E-commerce" represented by the " Marketing by live streaming" has experienced explosive growth and exposed some problems such as exaggeration, shoddy, fraudulent sales and so on, which restrict the healthy development of China's live streaming e-commerce. Taking the influences of information asymmetry and decision-makers’ behavioral preferences into account, this project aims to investigate the information disclosure, incentive mechanism design, profit distribution and market supervision in a three-tier e-commerce supply chain composed of brand owners, anchors, and platform channel parties from the perspective of information value co-creation. Starting from the decision-makers’ behavioral preferences, this project aims at constructing utility characterization models based on the multi-agent’s overconfidence behaviors to study the impacts of them on information disclosure decisions of the live streaming e-commerce supply chain. Then, from the perspective of the information value co-creation, this project investigates the hybrid information disclosure decision and incentive mechanism design for the live streaming e-commerce dual-channel supply chain, and further proposes a fair profit distribution plan based on Shapley value. Finally, from a long-term development perspective, this project considers government regulations to build multi-agent information disclosure evolutionary game models based on repeated games, and explore the regulatory mechanism to achieve market standardization. The research results of the project are of great significance to promote the information resources integration, performance improvement and steady development of the live streaming e-commerce supply chain.