技术封锁下的企业突围：美国实体清单的“涟漪效应”研究

美国对华技术封锁将是中国高新技术产业未来发展的外部常态。面对这一变局，高科技企业如何调整创新战略、实现困境突围，是亟待解决的重要问题。本项目基于企业技术创新战略的理论框架，突破一贯的技术引进假定，以中国企业被美国列入实体清单为场景，研究技术封锁的影响如何通过产业链层层扩散、形成“涟漪效应”，改变清单企业、同行和供应商的创新战略。具体地，本项目以2018—2020年美国发布的6批次实体清单为契机，检验技术封锁对三类企业的自主研发、风险投资和专利公开等决策的影响，并探讨企业成功调整创新战略所需的内外部条件和考察战略调整的经济后果。本项目在技术封锁的新常态下研究如何推动企业的技术进步，并检验了美国对华技术封锁这一外部变局和中美经济关系新形态的经济影响。同时，本项目也为企业应对技术封锁困境和决策层构建支持企业自主创新的政策体系提供了有益参考。

The technology blockade from the U.S. will be the external normal for the future development of China's high-tech industries. How to adjust the innovation strategy and break the blockade under this situation is an important issue that needs to be solved urgently by high-tech enterprises. Using the U.S. Entity List to proxy the technology blockade, this project studies the ripple effect of the technology blockade on innovation behaviors of the blocked enterprises, their peers, and suppliers, based on the theoretical framework of the enterprise technology innovation strategy. Specifically, the six newly-added lists announced from 2018 to 2020 are adopted to examine the impact of the blockade on firms’ decisions of R&D investment, corporate venture investment, and patent disclosure. What’s more, the project explores when the ripple effects would be more or less pronounced from the perspective of firms’ internal and external environments, and the economic consequences of firms’ change of innovation behaviors. Overall, this project studies the technology innovation strategy of Chinese enterprises in the context of technology blockade and examines the economic impact of the new form of Sino-US economic relations. In practical terms, this project provides a useful reference for not only enterprises to deal with the technology blockade dilemma but also decision-makers to establish a policy framework supporting enterprises' self-dependent innovation.