登陆北部湾台风引起的广西沿岸风暴流产生机制研究

利用长度为一年的单点ADCP和潮位仪观测的海流和潮位数据，以及广西主要海洋站潮位、气象等数据，针对2011年“纳沙”台风期间引发的广西沿岸增减水变化和西向流现象，分析广西沿岸在台风期间突发的风暴流产生机制，找出它们之间内在规律；通过增加台风期流、潮观测资料序列，获取不同区域风暴流产生的分析数据，并根据台风登陆最大风速半径、中心气压、移行速度、台风路径等因素，建立风、流、增减水一体的三维风暴潮数值模式，深入分析正压流、地形、陆架陷波等物理过程与天文潮-风暴潮相互作用的内在联系，研究不同台风条件下风暴流出现的规律及驱动机制，在此模型基础上，选定近年来引起比较明显增水的台风风场进行试验分析，最终获得适合广西沿海的、能够预测风暴潮、风暴流的全新模式，为风暴流传入近岸港湾之后的变形和强化找出理论依据。

The mechanism of the generation of sudden storm jets in Guangxi offshore region during Typhoon Nesat in 2011 will be analyzed bases on one-year continuous observation data of wave, current and water level collected from an anchored ADCP and tide gage, combined with the hydrographic and meteorological data from marine stations of Guangxi. The research will focus on the storm surge and strong western jet current in Guangxi coastal region during Nesat, and additional observation of current and water level data will be arranged to achieve different characteristics of the storm current in different regions in Guangxi. Then a three-dimensional coupled wind-current-storm surge model will be constructed according to the radius of maximum wind, central air pressure, translation speed and track of typhoons for further analysis of the internal relationship between storm surge-tide interaction and dynamical processes such as barotropical current, bottom topography and coastal trapped waves, seeking for resolutions of the rules and driving mechanics of the strong storm jet current under different typhoon situation. Meanwhile, numerical experiments will be carried out according to the selected typical typhoon event which caused significant water level rise and finally a model suitable for the Guangxi coastal region will be available and capable of high-quality prediction of the storm surges and jets. The research also aims at presenting theoretical basis for the deformation and intensification of the jet after it enters the coastal bays.