中美贸易摩擦量化评估研究：企业策略、产品价格和贸易转移

本课题旨在研究中美贸易摩擦对中国经济的影响，重点关注中国对美反制关税在下述四个方面的影响：1，通过改变进口成本和进口竞争程度对中国企业出口的影响，2，对多产品企业内不同产品的生产经营定价策略的影响，3，对进口价格水平和国内价格水平的影响，并分解为改变已有产品价格和产品种类两条影响机制，4，对进出口向其他国家或地区转移的影响，并考察贸易转移和全球价值链的关系。课题使用2016-2019年产品层面海关进出口交易数据以及消费品零售数据，构建理论模型，对进出口价格弹性、物价水平等进行结构式估计和度量，对评估中美贸易摩擦对企业生产和居民生活成本的影响，和企业贸易结构的变化提供政策上的参考依据。

This project studies the influence of China-US trade dispute on Chinese economy. We particularly investigate the impact of China’s retaliatory tariffs on the following perspectives: 1, how export is altered through the channels of rising import cost and decreasing import competition, 2, how multi-product firms adjust product scope, pricing and sales in responses to higher trade barrier, 3, the change of production and living price index, and to what extent the price change can be attributed to the change of continuing products and product varieties, 4, trade diversion to other economies, and the heterogeneous impact across product position on global value chain. By applying the latest disaggregated transaction trade data in 2016-2019 and domestic retail price data, the project measures the exact production and consumption price index based on a theoretic model, estimates import and export elasticity, evaluates how production strategy and trade flows are reshaped, and sheds light on policy implications.