变随动特征下太阳辐射精准计算模型及典型设计参数构建方法研究

太阳辐射设计参数是建筑冷热负荷、光伏光热等设计计算的基础，是建筑节能设计工作核心底层参数之一。但太阳辐射长期数据缺失是普遍现象，导致国内外尚未建立完善的太阳辐射设计参数体系。现有两类太阳辐射设计参数主流计算方法中，基于晴天辐射模型理论值过于极端、基于典型年数据统计值又平拟了太阳辐射年代差异，参数不具有代表性。并且太阳辐射与常规气象参数体现出复杂的变随动关联关系、太阳辐射年代际变化剧烈等问题突出，现有太阳辐射数据补全方法和传统基于30年统计时长的室外设计参数计算方法难以适用。本项目拟揭示太阳辐射与常规气象参数时变随动性规律，建立精度更高的太阳辐射时变计算模型，补全辐射数据；剖析总/直/散太阳辐射时空动态特征，提出设计参数最优统计时长优化方法；依据太阳辐射在建筑热工计算、光热光伏系统等应用中的时滞特征，提出与不同计算用途相匹配的设计参数构建方法和数据库，为建筑节能和太阳能利用提供精准设计参数。

Solar radiation design parameters are the basis for building cooling/heating load calculation and solar thermal and photovoltaic design, and one of the core parameters of building energy conservation design. However, the lack of long-term solar radiation is a widely existing phenomenon, resulting in that the perfect solar radiation design parameter system has not yet established. As for the existing two calculating methods for solar radiation design parameter, the design parameters based on the theoretical value of clear-sky model are too extreme and that based on the statistical value of typical annual data eliminate the differences of solar radiation in different years and the design parameters are not typical. Furthermore, the solar radiation and general meteorological parameters are complexly and variedly correlated; the interdecadal change of solar radiation is dramatic. As a result, the traditional solar radiation completion method and the design parameters determination method based on thirty-year statistical duration are hardly applied. Therefore, this study intends to reveal the time-varying characteristics of the correlation between solar radiation and generalized meteorological parameters through statistical analysis; to establish a multi-parameter-based solar radiation time-varying model to complete the long-term radiation data; to analyze the long-term dynamic variation law of global/beam/diffuse solar radiation and develop the optimal mean state synthesis model to determine the optimal statistical duration of design parameters; to propose the suitable design parameter determination method based on the time-delay characteristics of the solar utilization in building thermal engineering calculation, solar thermal/photovoltaic design. Thus, this research provides accurate design parameters for building energy conservation and solar energy utilization.