农业转移人口“市民化机会”的测度方法与空间分异

我国新型城镇化战略亟待科学认知“有序推进农业转移人口市民化”政策瓶颈背后的重大问题：如何精准的契合不同农民工的差异化的市民化诉求及“机会偏好”？不同类型农民工的“市民化机会”集中分布在哪类地域？如何引导农民工有序流向宜居宜业的城市类型？本项目借鉴西方“机会地理”的实证和政策分析框架，科学定义和测度我国农业转移人口的“市民化机会”；全面认识1990-2020年农业转移人口跨市流动和“市民化机会”分布的区域差异及影响因素；针对“市民化机会”分布与真实人口迁移格局之间的匹配状况开展地理探测；调研典型问题区；归纳总结农业转移人口市民化发展的区域分异理论，提出分类模式。该研究在学术上有助于从机会地理的视角准确解读“市民化机会”区域差异是如何驱动乡城人口迁移的，丰富我国新型城镇化政策建设；在实践上可为因地制宜采用不同类型的市民化发展模式、破解问题区域困境（劳动力过度集中、持续流失等）提供科学依据。

China’s great transformation to the “New People-Oriented Urbanization” is faced with a development dilemma now: how to promote the “citizenization opportunities” of Chinese rural migrants in a more orderly and targeted way? We know little about a) where do the “citizenization opportunities” of different migrant groups congregate; and b) which regions are more accessible and suitable for the specific rural migrant groups to settle down. This research will employ the “Geography of Opportunity” analytic tool to analyze systematically the definition, measurement, regional heterogeneity and mechanism of inter-city migration and “citizenization opportunities” of the Chinese rural migrants between 1990 and 2020. We will tentatively propose the geographic categorization methods and GeoDetector technique for a) identifying the low- and high-opportunity zones for rural migrants; b) measuring the match between labour cluster and opportunity cluster; and c) diagnosing the mismatch problems between them. The investigation on the problematic “opportunity zones” would look into the multi-scalar and multi-level pattern of the “Geography of Opportunity” and its spillover mechanism across administrative boundaries. Finally, this project will raise the regional heterogeneity theory on the “citizenization opportunities” of Chinese rural migrants, and summarize its geographic categorization pattern. This theoretical and empirical analysis would broaden our understandings on the role of “Geography of Opportunity” in driving the massive rural-urban migration and the great regional heterogeneity of the “citizenization opportunities” of Chinese rural migrants at the current urbanization stage. These findings will beef up the theoretical system and policy-making in the “New People-Oriented Urbanization”. The geographic categorization and diagnosis for different opportunity zones will contribute to a new scientific analytic framework to identify the suitable urbanization and citizenization path for different regions, including the problematic ones with the over-clustering or successive-loss of labour force.