关键核心技术贸易壁垒与产业安全：作用机制、政策选择与模拟仿真

随着我国地位不断崛起和全球经济的持续低迷，以美国为代表的西方国家进一步加强了对我国关键核心技术的贸易壁垒，直接威胁我国核心产业安全，政府决策部门面临新的治理挑战。探究关键核心技术及其对产业安全的影响机制，科学选择政策工具以进行前瞻性和针对性的政策部署，已成为当前理论研究与决策实践的重要关切。本项目基于技术创新与管理、国际贸易、产业经济等相关理论，通过博弈分析阐释关键核心技术贸易壁垒的设置动机及形成机理，提出贸易壁垒要素、形式、强度的量化测度方案；从要素投入、供应链结构、动态能力维度解构产业安全，利用计量经济学模型剖析关键核心技术贸易壁垒对产业安全的影响机制；深度整合动态演化博弈与Multi-Agent模型，提出关键核心技术贸易壁垒下产业安全风险防控政策选择的逻辑框架与方法，仿真关键核心技术壁垒对产业安全的影响及不同政策选择方案的差异化效用。以期为未来贸易与产业政策制定提供理论支持和决策参考

With the rise of China's status and the global economic downturn, the Western countries represented by the United States have further strengthened their trade barriers against China's key core technologies, directly threatening the security of China's core industries, government policy-making departments face new governance challenges. It has become an important concern in current theoretical research and policy-making practice to explore key core technologies and their impact mechanism on industrial security, and to select policy tools scientifically for forward-looking and targeted policy deployment. This project based on the theory of technology innovation and management, international trade, industrial economy and so on. Through game analysis, it explains the setting motivation and forming mechanism of the key technical barriers to trade, this paper puts forward a quantitative measurement scheme of trade barrier elements, forms and intensities, and deconstructs industrial security from the dimensions of factor input, supply chain structure and dynamic capability, using the econometrics model to analyze the impact mechanism of key technical barriers to trade on industrial security; deeply integrating dynamic evolutionary game and Multi-Agent model, the logical framework and method of Industrial Security Risk Prevention and control policy selection under key technical barriers to trade are put forward, and the effect of key technical barriers on industrial security and the differential effect of different policy options are simulated. With a view to future trade and industrial policy-making to provide theoretical support and decision-making reference.