基于GIS和LCA-MILP的陕西菊芋生物乙醇可持续性发展综合分析

利用边际土地种植非粮能源植物成为生物燃料可持续性发展的重要方向。当前国内外对生物燃料方面的研究多侧重其技术可行性及成本效益分析，而对能源作物规模化种植所带来的环境经济社会影响缺乏系统性研究。本项目拟以能源植物菊芋为例，结合陕西省种植区的测试和分析工作，发展一种耦合土壤有机碳温室气体排放模型与LCA的技术方法，对基于菊芋发展生物乙醇的减排潜力进行准确评估。同时，以LCA总经济价值最大化为目标，以生产投入成本、总预算、环境影响等条件为约束，建立多目标MILP评估模型对环境、经济和社会可持续性发展进行综合评估。项目将真正实现区域尺度能源植物发展潜力的准确估算，为区域可再生能源发展和相关产业政策提供科学依据。

The cultivation of marginal lands for bioenergy production has recently become a topic of research interest for sustainable bioenergy. However, considering their environmental, economic, social, and institutional aspects, the available works in this field usually emphasize particular imensions and do not allow this integration, which is essential for understanding and evaluating the bioenergy system's sustainability. The main objective of this project is to establish an operational method for comprehensive evaluation the GHG emission reduction potential from large-scale cultivation of energy plant Jerusalem artichoke, by combining LCA with high-resolution spatial modelling of greenhouse gas emissions.model. An MILP model is formulated with the objective of maximizing economic values obtained from Jerusalem artichoke -based biofuel production as well as its beneficial environmental impacts. By this means, the analysis and appraisal of maximum net energy amount and GHG emission reduction potential of fuel bioethanol from Cassava can be achieved, thus offering technical methods and typical cases for analysis of development potentials and environmental benefits of biofuels derived from energy plants. We perform sensitivity analysis to address the uncertainty in budget, yield, and utilization of cropland, and present insights into the economic and environmental impacts of Jerusalem artichoke production.This model can also be extended to biomass production from any other types of energy crops to identify the most efficient production planning strategies under various management scenarios, thus offering technical methods and typical cases for analysis of development potentials and environmental benefits of biofuels derived from energy plants.