基于贝叶斯网络的黄河流域中游人水关系演变驱动与优化研究

黄河流域生态环境脆弱、水资源保障形势严峻，人水关系不协调。特别是中游地区，面临着土壤侵蚀仍然严重，生态建设布局与水资源平衡等问题，既影响黄土高原生境改善，又牵动黄河下游水资源利用和河道的长治久安，是黄河流域系统综合治理的焦点。本项目以黄河流域中游近40年的人水关系演变为典型案例，通过分析中游各小流域关键社会、水文、生态要素的时空变化，辨别流域人水关系演变阶段和特征；基于贝叶斯网络方法识别不同阶段人水关系演变对驱动因子的差异化响应，分析演变的驱动机制；结合贝叶斯网络和多目标优化方法，分析驱动因素-关键要素-社会生态结果的联动反应，探讨实现“水资源高效利用、生态安全、粮食安全”目标的社会-水-生态优化权衡策略，为黄河流域优化水资源管理和协调人水关系提供理论依据，为比较社会水文学研究提供参考。

Yellow River Basin (YRB) has a fragile ecology and insufficient water resources, where the relationship between human and water shows uncoordinated. Especially, the midstream region of the Basin is still suffering severe soil erosion and confront with the problems of designing ecological construction layout and balancing water resources, which not only affects the environmental improvement of Loess Plateau, but also impacts the water resources use in the downstream region, as well as the long-term stability of river channel. The midstream region is therefore the focus of the integrated management of YRB. This project takes the evolution of human-water relationship in the midstream region of YRB in the past 40 years as a typical case. By analyzing the temporal and spatial changes of key social, hydrological, and ecological elements in the sub-basins in the middle reaches, the evolutionary stages and characteristics of the human-water relationship will be identified; using the Bayesian network method, we will reveal the evolutionary mechanism by identifying the different response of human-water relationship to driving factors at different stages; Then we will analyze the linkage reaction of the driving factors, key elements and social-ecological outcomes by coupling Bayesian networks and multi-objective optimization methods, and explore the optimization tactics which may realize the goals of "efficient use of water resources, ecological security, and food security". This will provide theoretical basis for optimizing water resources management and coordinating the relationship between human and water in the Yellow River Basin, and provide a reference for comparative socio-hydrological research.