近四十年香港劳动力市场和收入分配变化趋势研究

基于香港1981-2016年四十年间8轮人口普查数据，结合劳动力市场供求两端的外部冲击，本课题研究了以政府干预程度极低著称的香港地区在四十年间劳动力市场和收入分配变化趋势。本课题包含四个部分：首先对香港四十年间收入差距变化趋势进行估计和分解，其次估计香港社会教育代际流动性，以描述香港四十年间收入分配变化趋势。再次，结合香港高等教育大规模扩张，估计香港的高等教育回报率及其阶层差异，从劳动力市场供给的角度，检验仅靠后期人力资本投资是否足以在改善代际教育流动性的同时改善收入分配格局。最后，估计香港劳动力市场极化现象，并研究不同收入阶层家庭在劳动力市场极化过程中的职业和收入变化及对收入差距的影响，从劳动力市场需求变迁的角度来理解香港收入分配问题。最后本课题比较香港与其它发达经济体在政府转移支付方面的差异，并研究增加香港政府转移支付方式和再分配效果。

Based on the eight rounds of census data in Hong Kong from 1981 to 2016, and combined with external shocks at both ends of the labor market, this program studies the labor market and income distribution trends in Hong Kong, which is known for its extremely low level of government intervention. This program consists of four parts: first, this program estimate and decompose the trend of the income gap in Hong Kong during the past 40 years, and second, we estimate the intergenerational mobility of social education in Hong Kong to describe the change in income distribution in Hong Kong during the 40 years. Thirdly, combining with the large-scale expansion of higher education in Hong Kong, this program estimate the return rate of higher education in Hong Kong and its class difference. From the perspective of labor market supply, this program test whether the investment in human capital alone, which maybe improve intergenerational education mobility, is sufficient to improve income distribution. Finally, we estimate the polarization of Hong Kong's labor market, and study the occupational and income changes of families of different income classes in the process of labor market polarization and its impact on income inequality, which contribute to understand the issue of income distribution in Hong Kong from the perspective of changes in labor market demand. Finally, this program compares the differences in government cash transfer between Hong Kong and other advanced economies, and studies the methods and redistribution effects of increasing Hong Kong’s government cash transfer.