中国地方政府预算波动的影响因素研究：基于政治预算周期、预算制度和官员特征的视角

稳定的预算是实现政府高效运转、公共产品和服务充分供给以及政府治理能力提升的先决条件。关于政府预算波动的现有研究的不足之处在于，缺乏对预算波动的影响因素的系统探究，尤其是以中国地级市政府为研究对象的实证研究十分不足。本项目以中国地级市（1999-2018）为研究样本，在收集地级市政府在样本期间的一般公共预算总支出和主要分类支出数据的基础上，采用“预算趋势偏离法”和“预算间断规模分类法”构建地级市政府预算支出波动指数。本项目试图建立一个“政治—制度—管理”三维理论框架以探索中国地级市政府预算波动的影响因素。针对每个维度，本项目分别从政治预算周期、预算制度和官员背景特征三个视角选取若干量化指标作为解释变量进行实证研究。除了多元回归分析，为了获取可靠的因果关系证据，本项目将在实证研究中应用工具变量和双重差分因果推断研究方法。本项目关于政府预算波动的研究证据具有重要的学术价值和政策含义。

A stable budget is a prerequisite for the efficient operation of government, adequate provision of public goods and services, and improvement of government’s governance capacity. A significant limitation of the existing literature concerning government budget fluctuations is the lack of comprehensive studies of the determinants of government budget fluctuations. That limitation is particularly relevant among the research focusing on Chinese local governments. This research project uses China’s prefecture-level cities (1999-2018) as the research sample, collects the data on the general budget expenditures of the sample cities, and adopts the “budget trend deviation method” and “budget punctuation scale classification method” to construct the indices of government budget fluctuations of the sample cities. Moreover, this research project attempts to establish a “politics-institution-management” three-dimensional theoretical framework to explore the determinants of China's prefecture-level cities' budget fluctuations. Corresponding to each theoretical dimension, this research project selects several quantitative indicators as explanatory variables from the perspectives of the political budget cycle, budget institutions, and official characteristics, respectively, based on which empirical analyses are conducted. In order to obtain reliable causal evidence, this research project uses causal models such as instrumental variable and difference-in-difference estimations in the empirical analyses. Evidence of this research project has important academic value and policy significance.