中国天然气市场价格扭曲的关键因素识别与纠偏路径选择研究

天然气产业的市场化改革相对滞后，市场扭曲等问题一直为人们所诟病。而目前相关研究多将能源作为一种要素对其扭曲程度进行分析，相对忽略了其作为一重要产业自身发展的特征，以及扭曲背后产业层面的作用过程。本课题基于中国天然气产业层面的考察，从产业链 “产、运、销、储、用” 等市场主体混合互补问题（MCP）的视角出发，探索价格信号在网络中的传递过程，具有非常重要的科学意义和现实意义。本研究综合运用资源耗竭理论、垄断竞争理论、规制理论、交易成本理论等方面的理论，采取自底而上的方法进行天然气市场建模与仿真，对天然气市场主体行为进行特征解构和集成，研究天然气市场主体行为和各主体之间的相互作用关系和行为结果，揭示天然气市场均衡状态市场主体之间的耦合机理，揭示价格信号在产业层面的传递路径，识别价格扭曲面临的关键影响因素。最后，通过情景分析模拟纠偏路径的效果，为中国天然气市场改革提供重要的决策参考。

Market-oriented reform in natural gas industry has been lagging behind. The issue of market distortions has also been criticized in general. Research in the field considers energy as a general element to study its distortion, ignoring the important characteristics in the industry level and also the same to the interaction across the industrial network. Based on the investigation on the level of Chinese natural gas industry, the project researches the transection process for price signal in natural gas network in the complementarity framework of market agents including production, transportation, sales, storage and consumer, whilst the research has potentailly important scientific and practical significance. This study combines the theory of resource depletion theory, monopolistic competition theory, regulation theory and transaction cost theory to modeling and simulation of the natural gas market agent in the perspective of bottom-up approach, deconstructed and integrated the behavior characteristics for market agents,explored the interaction and behavior results in the market equilibrium, analyzed the transmission path for price signals in the industry, identified the key factors shaping price distortions. And finally it studies the effect of correcting path by scenario simulation,and providing important remarks for natural gas market reform in China.