中国减税降费的财政成本和社会效益：影响评估、作用机制和优化路径

减税降费是重要的财税政策，也是治国理政的重要工具。迄今为止，中国实行过多次减税降费政策，其中2019年的减税降费政策尤为突出：总量上接近2003年财政收入、结构上涉及12个税种、受益主体涵盖小微企业和民营经济等。在此背景下，本项目构建“立足微观着眼宏观”的分析框架，综合评估此次减税降费的财政成本与社会效益。本项目组主要采用2008~2015年中国税收调查数据和2010~2012年中国城镇住户调查月度数据，就此次减税降费中影响程度最深远的四个方面进行分析，分别是小微企业所得税减半征收、个人所得税免征额调整、增值税起征点调整和纳税人身份选择。前期研究显示，减税降费政策带来财政压力的同时，对提升市场经济具有重要帮助。进一步完善减税降费政策，不但需要调整小微企业与个体的受益程度，而且需要引导市场主体增强自我发展的内生动力，在不断实现社会效益帕累托改进的过程中适度弱化对财政的成本压力。

Tax and fee reduction is an important fiscal and tax policy, and also an important tool for governance. So far, China has implemented many tax reduction policies, especially in 2019: the total amount is close to 2003 fiscal revenue, involves 12 taxes in structure, and the beneficiaries include small and micro enterprises and private economy. In this context, the project constructs an analysis framework of "micro analyzed and macro based", and comprehensively evaluates the financial costs and social benefits of the tax reduction. The project mainly uses China's tax survey data from 2008 to 2015 and China's urban household survey monthly data from 2010 to 2012 to analyze the four most far-reaching aspects of the tax and fee reduction, namely, the half reduction of small and micro enterprise income tax, the adjustment of individual income tax exemption, the adjustment of starting point of value-added tax and the selection of taxpayer's identity. Previous research shows that although the tax and fee reduction policy brings financial pressure, it is of great help to improve the market economy. To further improve the tax and fee reduction policy, it is not only necessary to adjust the benefit degree of small and micro enterprises and individuals, but also necessary to guide the market subjects to enhance the endogenous power of self-development, and moderately weaken the cost pressure on the finance in the process of continuous realization of Pareto improvements of social benefits.