金沙江下游水电梯级开发的水温时空变异对圆口铜鱼种群世代累积影响

金沙江下游梯级水电开发是实现我国能源结构调整的重要举措，随着水能开发程度的加深，鱼类资源衰减问题日益突出。本项目以金沙江下游梯级水电开发影响江段为研究区域，以圆口铜鱼（极度濒危物种）为指示性物种，开展梯级水电开发对鱼类种群世代累积影响及水温调控研究。采用现场观测、机理分析、室内实验与数学模型相结合的方法，重点揭示梯级水电开发对水库-河道系统中水温-水动力时空分布的影响规律，识别目标鱼类产卵场水温时空变异特征；阐明目标鱼类早期生活史阶段胚胎发育、孵化及性别分化等种群关键特征对水温变化的定量响应关系；基于该响应关系及关键生活史，建立目标鱼类种群动态模拟方法，模拟研究区域典型水温情景对目标鱼类种群年际短期影响及世代累积效应，提出维持目标鱼类自然种群延续的水温阈值，制定多库联合运行的水温调控方案，为梯级水电开发下目标鱼类自然资源保护提供科学依据。

The cascade hydropower development in Jinsha River downstream is an important way to the adjustment of energy structure in China. In this research, the impacted reach of cascade hydropower development in Jinsha River downstream is taken as the study area and Coreius guichenoti (critically endangered species) is taken as the target species for studying the accumulative influence of cascade hydropower development on fish population and the water temperature regulation. The field observation, mechanism analysis, laboratory experiment and mathematical model are used to reveal the influence of cascade hydropower development on the spatial and temporal distribution of water temperature and hydrodynamics in the reservoir-river system, and to identify the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of water temperature in the spawning grounds of target fish. To elucidate the quantitative responses of key population characteristics such as embryo, hatching and sex differentiation in the early life cycle of target fish to water temperature changes. Based on the relationship and key life cycle, fish population dynamics simulation method is set up for simulating the interannual short-term effects and generational cumulative effects of typical water temperature scenarios on target fish populations. The water temperature threshold value will be proposed to maintain the natural fish population, and the water temperature control scheme of multi-reservoir joint operation is developed to provide a scientific basis for the protection of natural resources of target fish under cascade hydropower development.