The American baby boom in historical perspective
The American baby boom in historical perspective
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历史视角下的美国婴儿潮
DOI：
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发表时间：
1962
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Easterlin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Easterlin
冒着过于随意地概括的危险，也许可以公平地说，经济理论中对人口增长的典型处理是作为一个外生变量，其运动是由人口学家给出的。本文件的一个目的是指出，对于符合经济学家的训练和经验的人口变化的原因，有进行富有成果的研究的余地。这场讨论的载体是最近的婴儿潮。我们首先根据经济变化的库兹涅茨周期概念重新审视历史记录，注意区分具有显著不同模式的三个人口群体的经历-外国出生的、本地出生的城市和本地出生的农村。然后，一些可能的原因观察到的模式进行了探讨。分析仅限于白色人群，因为这一群体的数据可靠性更高，并且在确定总体模式方面具有显著影响。（节选）
At the risk of generalizing too freely it would probably be fair to say that the typical treatment of population growth in economic theories is as an exogenous variable whose movement is given by demographers. One purpose of the present paper is to suggest that there is scope for fruitful research into the causes of population change compatible with economists training and experience. The vehicle for this discussion is the recent baby boom. We first take a fresh look at the historical record in the light of the Kuznets-cycle conception of economic change taking care to distinguish the experience of three population groups with significantly different patterns--foreign-born native-born urban and native-born rural. Then some possible reasons for the patterns observed are explored. The analysis is confined to the white population because of the greater reliability of the data for this group and its predominant influence in determining the pattern for the total. (excerpt)