Living rationally under the volcano? An empirical analysis of heavy drinking and smoking
Living rationally under the volcano? An empirical analysis of heavy drinking and smoking
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1468-2354.2007.00417.x
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发表时间：
2007-02-01
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
Sloan, Frank
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arcidiacono, Peter;Sieg, Holger;Sloan, Frank
这项研究调查了前瞻性行为模型是否比近视模型更好地解释了健康与退休研究中观察到的中老年男性大量饮酒和吸烟的模式。我们开发和估计一系列嵌套模型，这些模型根据其前瞻性行为的程度而不同。我们的实证结果表明，前瞻性模型比近视模型更符合数据。这些模型也主导了其他基于样本外预测的行为模型，这些预测使用的是70岁及以上男性的数据。近视模型预测老年人的吸烟率，这比老年男性的数据中发现的要大得多。
This study investigates whether models of forward-looking behavior explain the observed patterns of heavy drinking and smoking of men in late middle age in the Health and Retirement Study better than myopic models. We develop and estimate a sequence of nested models that differ by their degree of forward-looking behavior. Our empirical findings suggest that forward looking models fit the data better than myopic models. These models also dominate other behavioral models based on out-of-sample predictions using data of men aged 70 and over. Myopic models predict rates of smoking for old individuals, which are significantly larger than those found in the data on elderly men.