The role of climatic mapping in predicting the potential geographical distribution of non-indigenous pests under current and future climates
The role of climatic mapping in predicting the potential geographical distribution of non-indigenous pests under current and future climates
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DOI：
10.1016/s0167-8809(00)00216-4
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发表时间：
2000-12-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Walters, KFA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Baker, RHA;Sansford, CE;Walters, KFA
气候测绘根据生物体对栖息地气候的反应来预测生物体在新地区和未来气候下的潜在分布，但最近因忽视物种之间的扩散和相互作用（例如竞争、捕食和寄生）而受到批评。为了确定这些批评是否合理，我们对气候测绘中采用的不同程序进行了审查，并以地中海果蝇 (Ceratitis headata)、小麦黑穗病 (Tilletia indica) 和科罗拉多马铃薯甲虫 (Leptinotarsa decemlineata) 的研究为例。所有这些研究都强调非气候因素在决定分布方面发挥的关键作用，但结果表明，这些因素，例如食物的可用性和与寄主植物的同步性，以及缩小和放大数据的困难，与批评中强调的因素不同。还探讨了批评所依据的果蝇种群实验室研究在多大程度上可以推断出物种分布的一般预测。果蝇实验可以说明气候的重要性，但无法准确确定潜在的物种分布，因为仅估计了成虫种群密度，而不估计了繁殖种群密度。实验设计高估了物种之间的相互作用，而忽略了其他因素，例如食物的可用性。结论是，虽然存在局限性，但气候测绘程序在确定 G.E. 的内容方面仍然发挥着至关重要的作用。哈钦森将潜力分布研究中的“基本利基”定义为“基本利基”。这尤其适用于害虫物种，其中自然传播通常不如人类传播重要，而且物种相互作用受到农业生态系统中物种多样性贫乏的限制。由于缺乏数据，气候制图通常是唯一可以采用的方法。然而，为了确保此类研究不忽视非气候因素，应采用标准框架。此类框架已经开发用于有害生物风险分析，并且适合普遍用于潜在分布研究，因为为了证明国际贸易植物检疫监管的合理性，它们还必须考虑有害生物入侵新地区的可能性以及此类入侵的影响。 (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. 保留所有权利。
Climatic mapping, which predicts the potential distribution of organisms in new areas and under future climates based on their responses to climate in their home range, has recently been criticised for ignoring dispersal and interactions between species, such as competition, predation and parasitism. In order to determine whether these criticisms are justified, the different procedures employed in climatic mapping were reviewed, with examples taken from studies of the Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata), Karnal bunt of wheat (Tilletia indica) and the Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata). All these studies stressed the key role played by non-climatic factors in determining distribution but it was shown that these factors, e.g., the availability of food and synchrony with the host plant, together with the difficulties of downscaling and upscaling data, were different to those highlighted in the criticisms. The extent to which laboratory studies on Drosophila populations, on which the criticisms are based, can be extrapolated to general predictions of species distributions was also explored. The Drosophila experiments were found to illustrate the importance of climate but could not accurately determine potential species distributions because only adult and not breeding population densities were estimated. The experimental design overestimated species interactions and ignored other factors, such as the availability of food. It was concluded that while there are limitations, climatic mapping procedures continue to play a vital role in determining what G.E. Hutchinson defined as the "fundamental niche" in studies of potential distribution. This applies especially for pest species, where natural dispersal is generally less important than transport by man, and species interactions are limited by the impoverished species diversity in agroecosystems. Due to the lack of data, climatic mapping is often the only approach which can be adopted. Nevertheless, to ensure that non-climatic factors are not neglected in such studies, a standard framework should be employed. Such frameworks have already been developed for pest risk analyses and are suitable for general use in studies of potential distribution because, in order to justify the phytosanitary regulation of international trade, they must also consider the potential for pests to invade new areas and the impacts of such invasions. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.