Fixing for Your Life
Fixing for Your Life
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修复您的生活
DOI：
10.1353/btf.2000.0003
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发表时间：
2000
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Carmen M. Reinhart
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
G. Calvo;Carmen M. Reinhart
亚洲危机是在软钉住汇率制度的背景下发生的。这导致许多分析师得出结论，“钉住汇率制做到了”，而新兴市场（EM）应该对钉住汇率说“不”。我们提出的证据表明，新兴市场在关键方面与发达经济体有很大不同，这些方面在汇率制度的选择方面发挥着关键作用——浮动汇率制对于新兴市场来说并不是万能药。在新兴市场，货币崩溃是紧缩性的，经常账户的调整要剧烈得多。信用评级和利率行为所反映的信誉和市场准入受到货币贬值或贬值的不利影响。汇率波动对贸易的损害更大，而新兴市场从汇率波动到通胀的传导性要高得多。新兴经济体和发达经济体之间的这些差异可能解释了新兴市场不愿容忍汇率大幅波动的原因。在一个简单的框架中，我们说明了为什么当可能失去国际信贷时会担心汇率大幅波动。
The Asian crisis took place against a background of exchange rate regimes that were characterized as soft pegs. This has led many analysts to conclude that the peg did it' and that emerging markets (EMs) should just say no' to pegged exchange rates. We present evidence that EMs are very different from developed economies in key dimensions that play a key role when it comes to the choice of exchange rate regime--floating for EMs is no panacea. In EMs currency crashes are contractionary, the adjustments in the current account are far more acute. Credibility and market access, as captured in the behavior of credit ratings and interest rates, is adversely affected by devaluations or depreciations. Exchange rate volatility is more damaging to trade and the passthrough from exchange rate swings to inflation is far higher in EMs. These differences between emerging and developed economies may explain EMs reluctance to tolerate large exchange rate movements. In a simple framework we illustrate why large exchange rate swings are feared when access to international credit may be lost.