The Spatial-Temporal Characteristics and Influential Factors of NOx Emissions in China: A Spatial Econometric Analysis.
The Spatial-Temporal Characteristics and Influential Factors of NOx Emissions in China: A Spatial Econometric Analysis.
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中国NOX排放的时空特征和影响因素：空间计量经济学分析。
DOI：
10.3390/ijerph15071405
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发表时间：
2018-07-04
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Cheng J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Diao B;Ding L;Su P;Cheng J
在中国工业化、城镇化进程大踏步前进的同时，大气污染已成常态，影响范围广、治理难度大。以往关于NOx污染的研究多是从自然科学和技术的角度进行的，而从社会经济角度进行的研究较少，区域差异在驱动力模型中也没有得到足够的重视。本文采用2006 - 2015年中国省级面板数据、扩展的STIRPAT（Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population，Affluence and Technology）模型和空间计量经济模型，研究了氮氧化物排放的社会经济影响因素和时空格局。空间相关性分析结果表明，我国各省区NOx排放变化不仅影响到各省区本身，还影响到邻近地区。空间计量经济学分析表明，空间效应对氮氧化物排放的贡献很大。除机动车指标未通过显著性检验外，其他解释变量均对NOx排放量产生积极影响。通过对直接和间接影响后果的估算表明，各指标对自身区域有显著的正效应，并加剧了NOx污染。在间接影响方面，只有三个因素通过了显著性检验。国内生产总值（GDP）和能源消耗的增加将加剧邻近的氮氧化物污染。最后，应采取一系列社会经济措施和区域合作政策来改善中国目前的空气环境。
While the progress of China’s industrialization and urbanization has made great strides, atmospheric pollution has become the norm, with a wide range of influence and difficult governance. While many previous works on NOx pollution have been developed from the perspectives of natural science and technology, few studies have been conducted from social-economic points of view, and regional differences have not been given adequate attention in driving force models. This paper adopts China’s provincial panel data from 2006 to 2015, an extended STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) model, and spatial econometric models to investigate the socio-economic influential factors and spatial-temporal patterns of NOx emissions. According to the spatial correlation analysis results, the provincial NOx emission changes not only affected the provinces themselves, but also neighboring regions. Spatial econometric analysis shows that the spatial effect largely contributes to NOx emissions. The other explanatory variables all have positive impacts on NOx emissions, except for the vehicular indicator (which did not pass the significance test). As shown through the estimated consequences of direct and indirect effects, the indicators have significant positive effects on their own areas, and exacerbate NOx pollution. In terms of indirect effects, only three factors passed the significant test. An increase in gross domestic product (GDP) and energy consumption will exacerbate adjacent NOx pollution. Finally, a series of socio-economic measures and regional cooperation policies should be applied to improve the current air environment in China.
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