Frequency of initial caries lesions as predictor of future caries increment in children.
Frequency of initial caries lesions as predictor of future caries increment in children.
复制标题
初始龋齿病变的频率可作为儿童未来龋齿增加的预测因子。
DOI：
10.1111/j.1600-0722.1988.tb01401.x
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发表时间：
1988
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
H. Hausen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Seppä;H. Hausen
本研究的目的是评估初始龋齿病变频率对选择龋齿高危人群的预测能力。随访开始时，受试者 (n = 124) 年龄为 11-13 岁。最初和 5 年后都记录了龋齿。预测评估基于受试者根据预测的龋齿风险和实际 5 年龋齿增量进行的交叉制表。使用逻辑回归分析来产生个体风险评分。除了龋齿分数之外，预测函数中还包括受试者的年龄。在双变量分析中，基线总初始龋齿评分与龋齿增量的相关性优于 FS 和 DS 评分（r 分别为 0.40、0.13 和 0.31）。当使用过去的龋齿经历作为预测因素时，69% 的儿童被正确分类为低风险组和高风险组。令人惊讶的是，当初始龋齿评分包含在函数中时，只有另外两名受试者 (2%) 被正确分类。这些结果表明，纳入初始龋齿评分对传统 DS 和 FS 评分的预测能力几乎没有增加。
The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive power of the frequency of initial caries lesions in selecting persons at high risk for caries. The subjects (n = 124) were 11-13 yr old at the beginning of the follow-up. Caries was registered initially and and after 5 yr. Evaluation of the predictions was based on cross-tabulations of the subjects according to their predicted caries risk and the actual 5-yr caries increment. Logistic regression analyses were used to produce the individual risk scores. In addition to the caries scores, age of the subjects was included in the prediction function. In bivariate analyses the total initial caries score at baseline correlated better with caries increment than FS and DS scores did (r = 0.40, 0.13, and 0.31, respectively). When past caries experience was used as predictor, 69% of the children were classified correctly into the low and high risk groups. Surprisingly, only two more subjects (2%) were classified correctly when initial caries score was included in the function. These results suggest that inclusion of initial caries score adds little to the predictive power of the conventional DS and FS scores.