Spatially Varying Determinants of Farmland Conversion Across Qiantang Watershed, China
Spatially Varying Determinants of Farmland Conversion Across Qiantang Watershed, China
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DOI：
10.1007/s00267-013-0141-6
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发表时间：
2013-08
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Shiliang Su;Rui Xiao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shiliang Su;Rui Xiao
本文采用地理加权回归方法，对钱塘江流域1994 - 2003年行政尺度上农地非农化的影响因素进行了分析。确定了六个决定因素：森林总面积、到公路的距离、到第二条公路的距离、到河流的距离、人口和国内生产总值。这些确定的决定因素和农地非农化之间的关系表现出很大的空间非平稳性，因为他们的性格，性质和强度在空间上有很大的差异。通常，对于那些发展严重依赖公路基础设施发展的城市，“到第二条公路的距离”和“到河流的距离”的影响是负面的。但在山区，地形因素的限制导致这两个变量的积极影响。在社会经济快速发展的地区，人口增长和经济发展加速了农地非农化。然而，对于城市化程度较高的地区，预计耕地转换率将放缓。我们的研究强调，空间非平稳性的问题，应该解决时，资格的农地非农化的决定因素。将我们的研究结果与耕地保护的背景相结合，我们认为，实施当地特定的土地管理实践，而不是目前一刀切的框架，是中国耕地保护成功的关键。
This paper employed geographically weighted regression (GWR) to characterize the determinants of farmland conversion at administrative scale between 1994 and 2003 across Qiantang watershed, China. Six determinants were identified: total area of forest, distance to highway, distance to second road, distance to river, population, and gross domestic product. Relationships between these identified determinants and farmland conversion showed great spatial non-stationarity, since their character, nature, and strength varied significantly across space. Typically, for cities whose development was heavily relied on road infrastructure development, the impacts of “distance to second road” and “distance to river” was negative. However, in mountainous areas, the restriction of terrain factors led to positive impacts from these two variables. For areas undergoing rapid socio-economic development, farmland conversion was accelerated by population growth and economic development. However, for more urbanized regions, a slow-down rate of farmland conversion would be expected. Our study highlighted that the problem of spatial non-stationarity should be addressed when qualifying the determinants of farmland conversion. Linking our results within the context of farmland protection, we argue that implementing local-specific land management practices, instead of the current one-size-fits-all framework, is the key for the success of farmland protection in China.