A probabilistic framework for hurricane damage assessment considering non-stationarity and correlation in hurricane actions
A probabilistic framework for hurricane damage assessment considering non-stationarity and correlation in hurricane actions
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DOI：
10.1016/j.strusafe.2016.01.001
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发表时间：
2016-03
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Quanwang Li;Cao Wang;Hao Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Quanwang Li;Cao Wang;Hao Zhang
由于潜在气候变化的影响，飓风的强度和/或频率可能会发生变化。本文提出了一个概率框架来评估飓风对住宅建筑的损害，考虑到飓风行动的非平稳性和相关性。该框架包括飓风发生的非平稳泊松过程、飓风损害的故障率函数以及用于评估年度飓风损害的均值和方差的明确公式。该框架通过佛罗里达州迈阿密戴德县的案例研究进行了说明，其中当前飓风强度和发生率的概率模型是通过检查该地区的飓风历史来估计的。使用开发的框架单独评估随时间变化的飓风强度和随时间变化的飓风频率对建筑物损坏的影响。该论文还研究了飓风风速的相关性对飓风损害的影响。
The intensity and/or frequency of hurricane storms may change due to the impact of potential climate change. This paper presents a probabilistic framework to assess the hurricane damage to residential constructions considering the non-stationarity and correlation in hurricane actions. The framework includes a non-stationary Poisson process of hurricane occurrence, a failure rate function of hurricane damage, and explicit formulas for evaluating the mean and variance of annual hurricane damage. The framework is illustrated using a case study of Miami-Dade County, Florida, where the current probabilistic models of hurricane intensity and occurrence rate were estimated by examining hurricane history in this area. The impacts of time-variant hurricane intensity and time-variant hurricane frequency on building damage are assessed individually using the developed framework. The paper also investigates the effects of correlation in hurricane wind speeds on hurricane damage.