THE RIGHT PEOPLE, THE RIGHT RATES - MAKING POPULATION ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS WITH AN INTERREGIONAL COHORT-COMPONENT MODEL
THE RIGHT PEOPLE, THE RIGHT RATES - MAKING POPULATION ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS WITH AN INTERREGIONAL COHORT-COMPONENT MODEL
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DOI：
10.1080/01944369308975844
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发表时间：
1993-12-01
影响因子：
5.6
通讯作者：
ISSERMAN, AM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
ISSERMAN, AM
无辜的技术选择可能会导致人口预测的巨大差异。本文提供了做出这些选择并创建更周到的人群预测过程的建议。重点放在所有县的新移民和移民数据中，区域间组成部分方法成为可能。区域间方法避免了常规净迁移方法的概念问题和偏见，可用于使县人口估计，预测和预测。带有公式的样品电子表格展示了计算速率和预测的程序。五十五个县的人口预测说明了几种方法论的影响。
Innocent looking technical choices can cause large differences in population projections. This article offers suggestions for making those choices and creating a more thoughtful population forecasting process. Emphasis is on an interregional cohort-component approach made possible by newly available inmigration and outmigration data for all counties. The interregional approach avoids conceptual problems and biases of conventional net migration approaches and can be used to make county population estimates, projections, and forecasts. Sample spreadsheets with formulas demonstrate the procedures for calculating rates and making projections. Population projections for fifty-five counties illustrate the effects of several methodological choices.