The sensitivity of Sahelian runoff to climate change
The sensitivity of Sahelian runoff to climate change
复制标题
萨赫勒径流对气候变化的敏感性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
I. Zin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Gerbaux;Nick Hall;N. Dessay;I. Zin
Abstract A simple method is used to study the response of runoff in the Sahel to climate change. The statistical characteristics of rainfall are calculated over the western part of the Sahel for the period 1961–1990, using the BADOPLU network. Daily rainfall is simulated using a Markov process with Weibull distribution for rainfall depths. Runoff is modelled using a conceptual SCS model and the curve numbers are calculated for West Africa. Climate change is provided by simulations using the Arpège GCM (Scenario A1B), and a perturbation method is used on the parameters which describe the rainfall. Changes in rainfall are assumed to occur through increases in frequency, not intensity. Using Arpège, runoff is mainly found to increase, in depth and in number of events, by the end of the 21st century. Changes in evaporation and land use are not included in the analysis. The impact of this 21st century potential climate change (rainfall) on the runoff is found to be of the same magnitude as the impact of changes in land use.
