Probabilistic Modelling of Demand Diversity and its Relationship with Electricity Market Outcomes
Probabilistic Modelling of Demand Diversity and its Relationship with Electricity Market Outcomes
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需求多样性的概率模型及其与电力市场结果的关系
DOI：
10.1109/pes.2007.385774
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
T. Saha
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Ziser;Z. Dong;T. Saha
多区域互联电力市场规划过程的一部分涉及电力市场模拟，以寻找新一代投资需求的迹象。需要在模拟期间以调度间隔为基础进行区域需求预测，由于区域间需求多样性会影响市场结果，应选择适当的多样性水平并考虑多样性的不确定性。本文提出了一种需求多样性情景的概率模拟方法，并分析了与需求多样性相关的市场效益。此外，还研究了这对新一代投资指标的影响。
Part of the planning process in a multi-regional, interconnected electricity market involves electricity market simulation to look for indications of the need for new generation investment. Regional demand forecasts are required on a dispatch-interval basis for the simulation period, and as interregional demand diversity can affect market outcomes, appropriate levels of diversity should be chosen and uncertainty of diversity considered. This paper presents a methodology for probabilistic simulation of demand diversity scenarios, and an analysis of the market benefits associated with demand diversity. In addition, the implications this has for new generation investment indicators is examined.