Deep ocean early warning signals of an Atlantic MOC collapse
Deep ocean early warning signals of an Atlantic MOC collapse
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DOI：
10.1002/2014gl061019
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发表时间：
2014-08-28
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Dijkstra, Henk A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Feng, Qing Yi;Viebahn, Jan P.;Dijkstra, Henk A.
未来大西洋子午线翻转环流(MOC)的崩溃被认为是气候系统中最危险的转折点之一。因此，根据相对较短的时间序列，为这种潜在的崩溃制定预警指标至关重要。到目前为止，使用基于严重放缓的指标的尝试略有成功。基于复杂气候网络的重建，我们提出了一个有效监测深海环流空间变化的MOC崩塌新指标。通过对这一指标的性能分析，我们制定了MOC的最佳测量位置，以提供崩溃的早期预警信号。我们的结果表明，提高大西洋MOC观测的空间分辨率(即在更多的断面上)可以改善早期检测，因为更好地捕捉到了过渡附近深海产生的空间相干性。
A future collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) has been identified as one of the most dangerous tipping points in the climate system. It is therefore crucial to develop early warning indicators for such a potential collapse based on relatively short time series. So far, attempts to use indicators based on critical slowdown have been marginally successful. Based on complex climate network reconstruction, we here present a promising new indicator for the MOC collapse that efficiently monitors spatial changes in deep ocean circulation. Through our analysis of the performance of this indicator, we formulate optimal locations of measurement of the MOC to provide early warning signals of a collapse. Our results imply that an increase in spatial resolution of the Atlantic MOC observations (i.e., at more sections) can improve early detection, because the spatial coherence in the deep ocean arising near the transition is better captured.