Dynamic analysis method to open the “black box” of urban metabolism
Dynamic analysis method to open the “black box” of urban metabolism
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DOI：
10.1016/j.resconrec.2018.09.010
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发表时间：
2018-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Qing Huang;Xin-qi Zheng;Fei Liu;Yecui Hu;Yuqiang Zuo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Qing Huang;Xin-qi Zheng;Fei Liu;Yecui Hu;Yuqiang Zuo
城市新陈代谢是一个复杂的系统问题，它考虑了城市的动态行为，如物质、能量和资本流动。现有的城市代谢方法都是将城市系统视为一个“黑盒子”，计算能量和物质的输入和输出流，但缺乏对内部元素和代谢过程的分析。本研究引入系统动力学模型来研究城市系统内的存量、流量、活动和驱动因素，并建立了双层模型来实现两个空间尺度上的代谢建模。从需求驱动的角度建立系统动力学模型，模拟城市新陈代谢中不同资源和材料的输入。采用能值分析计算变量值，评价代谢状态。以京津冀城市群为例，对模型进行了验证，并找出了主要驱动因素。结果表明，系统动力学方法适用于城市代谢的研究。在未来的工作中，应该在模型中发展更多的代谢细节，以减少数据限制的影响，并考虑更多影响城市代谢的成分驱动因素和系统内的关系。
Urban metabolism is a complex system problem that takes into account urban dynamic behavior such as material, energy, and capital flows. The available methods for urban metabolism are all approaches that consider an urban system to be a “black box”, accounting the input and output flows of energy and material, but lacking an analysis of internal elements and the metabolic processes. This study introduced a system dynamics model to study the stocks, flows, activities, and drivers within an urban system, and developed a double-layer model to implement metabolic modeling at two spatial scales. The system dynamics model is built from the perspective of demand-driven to simulate the input of different resources and materials in the urban metabolism. Emergy analysis was used to calculate the value of variables and evaluate metabolic status. A detailed case study for Jing-Jin-Ji agglomeration of China is used to validate the model and identify major drivers. Results show that the system dynamics approach is suitable for the research of urban metabolism. In future work, more metabolic details should be developed in the model to reduce the impact of data limitations, and more component drivers that affect urban metabolism and relationships within the system should be considered.