Prediction of pertussis vaccine efficacy using a correlates of protection model
Prediction of pertussis vaccine efficacy using a correlates of protection model
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DOI：
10.1016/j.vaccine.2008.04.016
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发表时间：
2008-06-25
期刊：
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Noriega, Fernando
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kohberger, Robert C.;Jemiolo, David;Noriega, Fernando
先前开发的统计模型将疫苗免疫应答与家庭接触环境中百日咳疾病的保护联系起来。在这个模型可以用于预测基于免疫反应的疾病风险之前，它必须经过验证以证明可靠的预测。该模型在统计学标准（普伦蒂斯代孕措施）以及独立疗效试验（荟萃分析）的预测能力方面得到验证。此外，该模型用于预测最近两项免疫原性试验的有效性，这些试验比较了5组分无细胞百日咳五价联合疫苗与其疫苗组分的单独给药。该模型预测了类似的保护有效率：三剂后为82%，四剂后为83%。对这些受试者的随访，该模型还预测了联合疫苗和单独疫苗（75%）的持续和可比的疗效，直至学龄前加强年龄。
A previously developed statistical model relates vaccine immune responses to protection against pertussis disease in a household contact setting. Before this model can be used to predict the risk of disease based on immune responses, it must be validated to demonstrate reliable predictions. The model is shown here to be validated in terms of statistical criteria (Prentice surrogacy measures) as well as predictive capability in an independent efficacy trial (meta-analysis). Additionally, the model is used to predict efficacy from two recent immunogenicity trials comparing a 5-component acellular pertussis pentavalent combination vaccine with separate administration of its vaccine components. The model predicted similar protective efficacy rates: 82% after three doses and 83% after four doses. Follow-up of these subjects the model also predicted sustained and comparable efficacy for the combination and separate vaccines (75%) up to the pre-school booster age.