Human Capital Investment and the Sustainability of Public Transfer Systems Across Europe
Human Capital Investment and the Sustainability of Public Transfer Systems Across Europe
复制标题
欧洲的人力资本投资和公共转移系统的可持续性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Tanja Istenič
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bernhard Hammer;A. Prskawetz;R. Gál;Lili Vargha;Tanja Istenič
我们使用一个新的队列特定的指标，人力资本投资差距（HKIG），在24个欧盟国家的公共转移系统的可持续性进行评估。该指标衡量某个群组的老年公共福利与子女一代的公共缴款之间的差异。通过计算1950年出生人群的HKIG，我们发现，考虑到2010年观察到的特定年龄和就业转移模式，在所分析的国家中，没有一个国家的儿童一代的贡献足以为1950年出生人群的老年福利提供资金。这一结果适用于大多数国家，即使假设就业前景非常乐观。将HKIG分解为各个组成部分显示，HKIG的跨国差异主要由公共供款和福利水平驱动，而退休年龄和就业率则起着非常小的作用。
We evaluate the sustainability of the public transfer systems in 24 EU countries using a new cohort-specific indicator, the Human Capital Investment Gap (HKIG). The indicator measures for a certain cohort the difference between the public benefits in old age and the public contributions of the child generation. Calculating the HKIG for the cohort born in 1950, we show that in none of the analyzed countries the contributions of the child generation will be sufficient to finance the old age benefits of the 1950 cohort, given the age- and employment-specific transfer pattern observed in 2010. This result holds for most of the countries even when assuming very optimistic employment scenarios. The decomposition of the HKIG into its components indicates that the cross-country differences in the HKIG are mainly driven by the level of public contributions and benefits, while retirement age and employment rates play a comparably minor role.