Dynamics of Cultural Change: The Human Development Perspective
Dynamics of Cultural Change: The Human Development Perspective
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/j.1468-2478.2012.00736.x
复制
发表时间：
2012-12-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Yesilada, Birol A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Abdollahian, Mark A.;Coan, Travis G.;Yesilada, Birol A.
Abdollahian，Mark A.（2012）文化变革的动力学：人类发展的视角。《国际研究季刊》，doi：10.1111/j.1468-2478.2012.00736.x？(c)2012年国际研究协会经济发展、文化变迁和政治自由化之间的关系经常通过经典现代化理论的透镜进行探讨。最近的学术界试图扩展经典理论，使其与经验现实更紧密地联系起来。从人类发展的角度来看，经济繁荣是文化发展的催化剂，导致有利于自由化的社会价值观，从而促进有效的民主。使用系统动态的方法，我们正式的动态因果结构中指定的人类发展的角度来看，开发一种新的计量经济学的程序（遗传算法非线性最小二乘法）来估计高度非线性，连续时间模型的参数，并验证我们的正式模型使用五波数据从世界价值观调查。我们的研究结果表明，发展是强烈的非线性和路径依赖：经济进步是成功的世俗化和表达的政治行为，这是持久的民主制度的先决条件的必要条件。因此，政策和体制安排必须适应而不是超过一个国家的经济进步水平，以创造对一个民主体制能够维持和繁荣的世俗和有表现力的政治市场的需求。
Abdollahian, Mark A. et al. (2012) Dynamics of Cultural Change: The Human Development Perspective. International Studies Quarterly, doi: 10.1111/j.1468-2478.2012.00736.x ?(c) 2012 International Studies Association The relationship between economic development, cultural change, and political liberalization is often explored through the lens of classic modernization theory. Recent scholarship attempts to extend classic theory to be more closely aligned with empirical reality. Under the human development perspective, economic prosperity acts as a catalyst for cultural development, leading to social values that favor liberalization, and thus promotes effective democracy. Using a systems dynamic approach, we formalize the dynamic causal structure specified in the human development perspective, develop a novel econometric procedure (Genetic Algorithm Nonlinear Least Squares) to estimate the parameters of highly nonlinear, continuous time models, and verify our formal model using five waves of data from the World Values Survey. Our results indicate that development is strongly nonlinear and path dependent: Economic progress is a necessary condition for successful secularization and expressive political behavior, which are antecedents for lasting democratic institutions. Thus, policies and institutional arrangements must be tailored to, not outpace, a nations level of economic progress to create demand for a secular and expressive political marketplace where democratic institutions can sustain and thrive.