Crop–livestock production systems in the Sahel - increasing resilience for adaptation to climate change and preserving food security
Crop–livestock production systems in the Sahel - increasing resilience for adaptation to climate change and preserving food security
复制标题
萨赫勒地区的农作物-畜牧业生产系统——增强适应气候变化的复原力并维护粮食安全
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014040
复制
发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
V. Gitz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Ickowicz;Véronique Ancey;C. Corniaux;G. Duteurtre;R. Poccard;I. Toure;E. Vall;A. Wane;A. Meybeck;J. Lankoski;S. Redfern;N. Azzu;V. Gitz
撒哈拉以南西非是一个脆弱区域，迫切需要更好地量化和了解气候变化对作物产量的影响。在这里，我们应用了基于过程的作物模型SARRA-H，该模型在塞内加尔、马里、布基纳法索和尼日尔的气候和农业实践方面，在8个对比鲜明的地点进行了多年田间试验和调查，并得到了校准和验证。该模型给出了一个合理的相关性与观察到的高粱和小米的产量在一系列的品种和传统的作物管理措施。我们将该模型应用于西非35个站点的高粱和小米产量的7000多个模拟，以及未来非常不同的气候条件。我们考虑了35种可能的气候情景，结合了-20%至20%的降水异常和+0至+6 C的温度异常。
Sub-Saharan West Africa is a vulnerable region where a better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields is urgently needed. Here, we have applied the process-based crop model SARRA-H calibrated and validated over multi-year field trials and surveys at eight contrasting sites in terms of climate and agricultural practices in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. The model gives a reasonable correlation with observed yields of sorghum and millet under a range of cultivars and traditional crop management practices. We applied the model to more than 7000 simulations of yields of sorghum and millet for 35 stations across West Africa and under very different future climate conditions. We took into account 35 possible climate scenarios by combining precipitation anomalies from− 20% to 20% and temperature anomalies from+ 0 to+ 6 C.