Component correlations in structure‐specific seismic loss estimation
Component correlations in structure‐specific seismic loss estimation
复制标题
特定结构地震损失估计中的分量相关性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Dominic S. Lee
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Bradley;Dominic S. Lee
本文讨论了特定结构地震损失估计中多个组成部分之间的相关性。迄今为止，对这种相关性的考虑受到方法论的易处理性、计算需求的增加以及计算数据的缺乏的限制。然而，以各种形式出现的分量相关性的影响是影响特定结构地震损失估计结果的重要因素，因此应谨慎地充分考虑其影响。本文提供了一种易于处理且计算高效的地震损失估计方法的细节，其中可以考虑相关性。讨论了确定必要相关性的方法，特别是那些在缺乏足够经验数据的情况下可以使用的方法，根据判断建议其值。通过应用于案例研究办公室结构来说明有关相关性的各种假设的影响。据观察，某些相关性假设可能导致给定损失强度和损失风险关系的对数正态标准偏差的误差超过 50%，而充分考虑部分相关性的计算成本比其他假设高 50 倍。版权所有 © 2009 约翰·威利父子有限公司
This paper addresses correlations between multiple components in structure‐specific seismic loss estimation. To date, the consideration of such correlations has been limited by methodological tractability, increased computational demand, and a paucity of data for their computation. The effect of component correlations, which arises in various forms, is however a significant factor affecting the results of structure‐specific seismic loss estimation and therefore it is prudent that adequate consideration be given to their effect. This paper provides the details of a tractable and computationally efficient seismic loss estimation methodology in which correlations can be considered. Methods to determine the necessary correlations are discussed, particularly those that can be used in the absence of sufficient empirical data, for which values are suggested based on the judgement. The effects of various assumptions regarding correlations are illustrated via application to a case‐study office structure. It is observed that certain correlation assumptions can lead to errors in excess of 50% in the lognormal standard deviation in the loss given intensity and loss hazard relationships, while full consideration of partial correlations is 50 times more computationally expensive than other assumptions. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.