Estimation of probable maximum water level in Shanghai
Estimation of probable maximum water level in Shanghai
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DOI：
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发表时间：
2004
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
Duan Yi-hong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Duan Yi-hong
分析了引发显著风暴潮的热带气旋路径和强度变化特征。结果表明，影响上海的路径有三种，即浙江东部沿海登陆西移、近岸北上和海上正面冲击上海。热带气旋经过上海附近地区时强度变化显著。上海附近热带气旋中心的最低地面气压一般大于920百帕。用统计方法估算出上海地区可能的最高水位约为210 cm。由于缺乏描述小概率的统计方法，这不适用于上海的水位估算。数值模拟结果表明，考虑热带气旋移动的可能路径、估计强度和不同速度的组合，利用三维数值模式计算可能的最高水位。结果表明，当TC5612的轨迹向纬度移动2°时，可能出现的最大水位出现在上海，最低海面气压取最低值。估计可能的水位为787厘米。
The characterization of track and intensity change of tropical cyclone is analyzed that induces remarkable storm surge. It is shown that there are three kinds of track that affect Shanghai, they are westward moving of landfalling at the east coast of Zhejiang Province,northward moving inshore and positively hit Shanghai on the sea. The change in the tropical cyclone intensity as it passes the area near to Shanghai is remarkable. In general, the minimum surface level pressure of tropical cyclene center near to Shanghai is greater than (920 hPa). The probable maximum water level in Shanghai area estimated using the statistical method is about (210 cm). This is not suitable for the estimation of water level in Shanghai due to the lack of statistical method for the description of small probability. The results of numerical simulation indicate that considering the combination of probable tracks, estimated intensities and various velocities of tropical cyclone movement, the probable maximum water levels are calculated using a three-dimensional numerical model. The result indicates that the probable maximum water level appears when the track of TC 5612 is set to move 2° in latitude and the minimum sea surface pressure takes the lowest value in Shanghai. The estimated probable water level is 787cm.