Allowing variance may enlarge the safe operating space for exploited ecosystems
Allowing variance may enlarge the safe operating space for exploited ecosystems
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1511804112
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发表时间：
2015-11-17
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Scheffer, Marten
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Carpenter, Stephen R.;Brock, William A.;Scheffer, Marten
食物、水或其他生态系统服务的流动变化使规划复杂化。因此，减少可变性和增加可预测性的管理策略可能是首选。然而，在短时间尺度（2-4年）内减少方差的行动，如果持续实施，可能导致长期生态系统变化，并带来不利后果。我们研究了三个众所周知的生态系统服务模型（湖泊富营养化、野生种群的收获和牧场上家养食草动物的产量）中管理短期变化的影响。在所有情况下，减少变异的行动会增加跨越临界生态系统阈值的风险，导致不太理想的生态系统状态。通过改变安全操作空间的边界，抑制适应性管理所需的信息，消除恢复力下降的信号，以及消除可能建立压力耐受性的压力，设法减少短期差异会造成生态系统的脆弱性。因此，对方差的管理与弹性的管理有着强烈而不可分割的相互作用。通过在观察变化的同时允许变化、学习和灵活性，管理者可以在发展过程中发现机会和问题，同时保持处理它们的能力。
Variable flows of food, water, or other ecosystem services complicate planning. Management strategies that decrease variability and increase predictability may therefore be preferred. However, actions to decrease variance over short timescales (2-4 y), when applied continuously, may lead to long-term ecosystem changes with adverse consequences. We investigated the effects of managing short-term variance in three well-understood models of ecosystem services: lake eutrophication, harvest of a wild population, and yield of domestic herbivores on a rangeland. In all cases, actions to decrease variance can increase the risk of crossing critical ecosystem thresholds, resulting in less desirable ecosystem states. Managing to decrease short-term variance creates ecosystem fragility by changing the boundaries of safe operating spaces, suppressing information needed for adaptive management, cancelling signals of declining resilience, and removing pressures that may build tolerance of stress. Thus, the management of variance interacts strongly and inseparably with the management of resilience. By allowing for variation, learning, and flexibility while observing change, managers can detect opportunities and problems as they develop while sustaining the capacity to deal with them.