How dependent is the alcohol industry on heavy drinking in England?
How dependent is the alcohol industry on heavy drinking in England?
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DOI：
10.1111/add.14386
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发表时间：
2018-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Meier, Petra S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bhattacharya, Aveek;Angus, Colin;Meier, Petra S.
目的 了解英国酒精行业对饮酒超出政府低风险指导方针的财务依赖程度。设计背景 情景建模使用 2013 年和 2014 年两次全国代表性调查的汇总数据进行描述性分析：英格兰健康调查 (HSE) 和生活成本和食品调查 (LCF)。我们估计了饮酒者在酒精销售收入中所占的比例高于指导水平，以及不同饮料和零售商类型之间的差异。然后，我们估计了如果全体人口将饮酒量减少到指导水平内对销售收入的影响，以及补偿这种收入损失所需的平均价格上涨。英格兰。参与者测量 共有 16,872 名个人 (HSE) 和 9975 名家庭 (LCF) 调查受访者。按饮料类型和贸易部门对酒精购买量和支付价格进行交易层面的估计。调查结果 结论 2013/2014 年，饮酒量超过指南水平的人预计占酒精销售收入总额的 68%：场外收入的 81%，场内收入的 60%。这占啤酒销售额的 77%、苹果酒销售额的 70%、葡萄酒销售额的 66% 和烈酒销售额的 50%。饮酒最严重的4%人口占所有消费的30%和所有行业收入的23%。如果所有消费者将饮酒量减少到指导水平以内，酒类销售收入可能会下降 38%（13 亿英镑）。为了减轻这种损失，支付的平均价格必须大幅上涨，例如，一品脱贸易啤酒上涨 2.64 英镑，一瓶 70 厘升的非贸易烈酒上涨 12.25 英镑。在英格兰，酒精行业在经济上似乎高度依赖大量饮酒，如果消费者在指导水平内饮酒，可能会面临重大经济损失。
Aims To understand the extent of the alcohol industry's financial dependence on drinking above government low-risk guidelines in England. Design Setting Scenario modelling using descriptive analyses of pooled data from the 2013 and 2014 waves of two nationally representative surveys: the Health Survey for England (HSE) and the Living Costs and Food Survey (LCF). We estimated the proportion of alcohol sales revenue accounted for by drinkers above guideline levels, and how this varies between different beverage and retailer types. We then estimated the impact on sales revenue if the entire population reduced their drinking to within guideline levels, as well as the average price increases necessary to compensate for such a loss of revenue. England. Participants Measurements A total of 16 872 individual (HSE) and 9975 household (LCF) survey respondents. Transaction-level estimates of volume of alcohol purchased and price paid by beverage type and trade sector. Findings Conclusions Those drinking above guideline levels are estimated to account for 68% of total alcohol sales revenue in 2013/14: 81% of off-trade revenue and 60% of on-trade revenue. This represents 77% of beer, 70% of cider, 66% of wine and 50% of spirits sales value. The heaviest drinking 4% of the population account for 30% of all consumption and 23% of all industry revenue. If all consumers reduced their drinking to within guideline levels, alcohol sales revenue could decline by 38% (13 pound billion). To mitigate this loss, average prices paid would have to rise substantially-for example, by 2.64 pound for a pint of on-trade beer or 12.25 pound for a 70 cl bottle of off-trade spirits. In England, the alcohol industry appears to be highly financially dependent upon heavy drinking, and might face significant financial losses were consumers to drink within guideline levels.