Short-Term Load Forecast Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies
Short-Term Load Forecast Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies
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DOI：
10.1109/greentech.2013.73
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发表时间：
2013-04
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
B. Hodge;D. Lew;M. Milligan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Hodge;D. Lew;M. Milligan
日前负荷预测是机组组合过程中电力系统运行的一个重要方面。它也是可再生能源整合研究中的一个重要因素，其中负荷和风能或太阳能预测技术的组合产生了净负荷的不确定性，必须通过经济调度过程或适当的储备进行管理。了解在此过程中可能发生的负荷预测误差，可以更好地决定补偿确实发生的误差所需的储备量。在这项工作中，我们进行了为期一年的两个独立的系统运营商观察到的前一天（和前两天）的负荷预测误差的统计分析。与通常假设的正态分布的电力系统运行模拟用于可再生能源的整合研究进行了比较。进一步的分析确定了负荷更可能低于或高于预测的时间段。
Load forecasting at the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of the load forecasting errors that may occur in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate for the errors that do occur. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.