A Structural Perspective on the Experimentalist School
A Structural Perspective on the Experimentalist School
复制标题
实验主义学派的结构视角
DOI：
10.1257/jep.24.2.47
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发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
8.4
通讯作者：
M. Keane
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Keane
“实验主义”学派一直困扰我的是它所传达的错误的确定性。我的观点和利默的观点一样，都认为在统计工作中，没有办法摆脱假设的作用，所以我们的结论总是偶然的。因此，我们应该谨慎对待我们的知识程度。我从市场营销领域提出了一些经济学的经验教训，在过去的20年里，在许多关键问题上达成了广泛的共识。在市场营销中，1）结构范式占主导地位，2）数据比经济学的某些领域要好得多，3）非常强调外部验证。好的数据总是有帮助的。我强调，做受控实验的能力并不意味着需要理论，最后，我将讨论不同的方法来验证模型。
What has always bothered me about the "experimentalist" school is the false sense of certainty it conveys. My view, like Leamer's, is that there is no way to escape the role of assumptions in statistical work, so our conclusions will always be contingent. Hence, we should be circumspect about our degree of knowledge. I present some lessons for economics from the field of marketing, a field where broad consensus has been reached on many key issues over the past twenty years. In marketing, 1) the structural paradigm is dominant, 2) the data are a lot better than in some fields of economics, and 3) there is great emphasis on external validation. Of course, good data always helps. I emphasize that the ability to do controlled experiments does not obviate the need for theory, and finally I address different approaches to model validation.
统计与因果关系：分离到重聚——评布莱恩·多德的《出生时分离》。
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Pearl,Judea
通讯作者：
Pearl,Judea