Potential predictability and extended range prediction of Indian summer monsoon breaks
Potential predictability and extended range prediction of Indian summer monsoon breaks
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DOI：
10.1029/2003gl017810
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发表时间：
2003-09-27
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Xavier, PK
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Goswami, BN;Xavier, PK
印度夏季风活跃（多雨）和中断（干旱）阶段的扩展范围预测（提前两到三周）对于农业规划和水资源管理非常重要。本文利用23年逐日降水和环流资料，发现了季风季节内振荡（ISO）的一个基本性质，即季风间断的潜在可预报极限（近似20天）明显高于季风活动的潜在可预报极限（近似10天）。然后建立了一个预报季风ISO的经验模式，并论证了提前18天预报季风中断的可行性。
Extended range prediction (two to three weeks in advance) of Indian summer monsoon active (rainy) and break (dry) phases are of great importance for agricultural planning and water management. Using daily rainfall and circulation data for 23 years, a fundamental property of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (ISO's) is discovered and shown that the potential predictability limit (similar to20 days) of monsoon breaks is significantly higher than that for active conditions (similar to10 days). An empirical model for prediction of monsoon ISO's is then constructed and feasibility of useful prediction of monsoon breaks up to 18 days in advance is demonstrated.