Comparative study on the influence of final use structure on carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
Comparative study on the influence of final use structure on carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
复制标题
京津冀地区最终利用结构对碳排放影响比较研究
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.363
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发表时间：
2019-06-10
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Zhang, Mian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fan, Jing-Li;Cao, Zhe;Zhang, Mian
京津冀地区经济的快速发展导致其二氧化碳排放量急剧增加，这与各地区的消费习惯和结构密切相关。采用基于投入产出的分解分析方法（IO-SDA），将1997 - 2012年京津冀地区CO2排放变化分解为人口、碳排放效率、生产结构、最终用途结构和人均地区生产总值5个驱动因子。并进一步分析了最终使用结构因素。结果表明：（1）人口和人均地区生产总值促进了各地区CO2排放;碳排放效率是最大的抵消因素：最终用途结构变化对北京和河北CO2排放增长的影响保持不变。对天津的影响从0.7Mt抵消到0.8Mt促进。(2)城市居民消费是北京市CO2排放最重要的抵消因素。投资和出口是促进天津和河北CO2排放增长的最主要的最终用途类型，贡献率分别为95.78%和88.09%。(3)从部门来看：建筑业对三个地区的资本形成总额影响最大。在出口方面，北京第三产业的抵消作用最大，而天津、河北主要依靠金属冶炼等制造业的推动。最后，提出了京津冀地区低碳化发展的政策建议。(C)2019 Elsevier B. V.版权所有。
The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region's rapid economic development has led to a dramatic increase in its CO2 emissions, which is closely related to various regions' consumption habits and structures. In this paper, the decomposition analysis method based on input and output (IO-SDA) was applied to decompose the CO2 emissions change of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1997 to 2012 into five driving factors: population, carbon emission efficiency, production structure, final use structure and per capita regional GDP. and then the final use structure factor was further analyzed. The results show that: (1) the population and per capita regional GDP promote the CO2 emissions of all regions; Carbon emission efficiency is the biggest offsetting factor: The effector final use structure changes on the growth of CO2 emissions in Beijing and Hebei remains unchanged. The effect on Tianjin was from 0.7Mt offset to 0.8Mt promotion. (2) Urban household consumption is the most important factor offsetting CO2 emissions in Beijing. Investment and export are the most important final use types for promoting the growth of CO2 emissions in Tianjin and Hebei, with the contribution of 95.78% and 88.09%, respectively. (3) From the sectoral perspective: The construction sector has the greatest impact on the total capital formation of the three regions. In terms of exports, Beijing's tertiary industry has the largest offsetting effect, while Tianjin and Hebei mainly rely on the promotion of metal smelting and other manufacturing industries. Finally, some policy implications for low carbonization are proposed in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.