Climate suitability for stable malaria transmission in Zimbabwe under different climate change scenarios
Climate suitability for stable malaria transmission in Zimbabwe under different climate change scenarios
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-005-6875-2
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发表时间：
2005-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Weyant, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ebi, KL;Hartman, J;Weyant, J
气候是决定疟疾潜在传播范围的一个因素。因此，气候变化可能对控制疟疾的努力起作用，也可能对其起作用。我们开发了津巴布韦恶性疟原虫稳定传播的未来气候适宜性模型。当前稳定疟疾传播的气候适宜性是基于气候对媒介疟蚊和恶性疟原虫生存和发展的约束的MARA/ARMA模型。我们利用16个2100年的气候预测，探索了疟疾未来可能的地理分布。这些结果表明，假设未来没有人为限制疟疾传播，温度和降水的变化可能改变津巴布韦疟疾的地理分布，使以前不适合传播的人口密集地区变得适合传播。在所有情景中，高原更适合传输，而低地和降水少的地区则表现出不同程度的变化，这取决于气候敏感性和温室气体排放稳定情景，以及所使用的环流模式。所采用的方法可以在其他非洲国家内部或在其他非洲国家之间使用。
Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.