The prospects for seasonal forecasting—A review paper
The prospects for seasonal forecasting—A review paper
复制标题
DOI：
10.1002/qj.49712051802
复制
发表时间：
1994-07
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
T. Palmer;D. Anderson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Palmer;D. Anderson
对大气和海洋年际波动的可预测性的证据进行了审查。热带动力较线性的性质与温带环流的混沌性质形成对比。最大的年际波动，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动的作用，它起源于热带太平洋，但扩展到影响半个地球，是大部分审查的重点。有人认为，温带地区的混沌状态行为的统计数据受到来自热带的这种强迫的影响。季节预测可以用经验模型或基于物理的模型进行。对两者的技能进行了回顾，但大多数考虑的是后者。这种模式既有大气成分，也有海洋成分，但这些模块的复杂程度差别很大。讨论了改进季节预报所需的大气和海洋模式的发展。结果表明，预测对初始条件和模式公式都很敏感，这意味着需要类似于目前正在开发的中期天气预报的集合积分。发展季节气候预测能力的好处被考虑在内，一方面包括天气预报，另一方面包括气候变化。这并不是对扩展范围预测的详尽回顾。没有考虑月度预报，只讨论了热带和北部温带地区的季节性可预测性，并重点讨论了欧洲。
The evidence for predictability of interannual fluctuations in the atmosphere and oceans is reviewed. The more linear nature of tropical dynamics is contrasted with the chaotic nature of extratropical circulations. The role of the largest interannual fluctuation, the El Nino Southern Oscillation, which has its origins in the tropical Pacific, but extends to influence half the globe, is the focus of much of the review. It is argued that the statistics of the chaotic regime behaviour of the extratropics are influenced by such forcing from the tropics. Seasonal predictions can be made with empirical or physically based models. The skill of both is reviewed but most consideration is given to the latter. Such models have both atmospheric and oceanic components but there is a wide range in the complexity of these modules. Developments in both atmospheric and oceanic models, needed to improve seasonal forecasts, are discussed. It is shown that predictions are sensitive to initial conditions as well as model formulation, implying the need for ensemble integrations similar to those currently under development for medium-range weather forecasting. The benefits of developing a seasonal-climate prediction capability are considered, including connections with weather forecasting on the one hand and climate change on the other. This is not an exhaustive review of extended-range predictions. Monthly forecasting is not considered and seasonal predictability is only discussed for the tropics and northern extratropics, with some focus on Europe.