The role of uncertainty and subjective influences on consequence assessment by aquatic biosecurity experts
The role of uncertainty and subjective influences on consequence assessment by aquatic biosecurity experts
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.03.043
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发表时间：
2013-09-30
影响因子：
8.7
通讯作者：
Hewitt, Chad L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Davidson, Alisha Dahlstrom;Campbell, Marnie L.;Hewitt, Chad L.
专家判断常常被用来缓解知识差距，这种差距限制了对水生非土著物种(ANS)对环境、经济、社会、文化和人类健康价值的影响(后果)的了解。为了了解这种不确定性可能如何影响专家决策，我们探索了不确定性的存在及其对科学家和管理人员对10个ANS的后果评估的影响。我们假设物种的分布、分类和影响类型将影响评估的大小。这些假设得到了部分支持。我们还假设了基于评估者组的后果程度和不确定性之间的关系的差异。这套假设没有得到支持，因为所有小组评估在结果和不确定性之间存在显著的负相关。在面对知识差距和其他形式的不确定性时，科学家和管理者都认为后果较低。这与“在被证明有罪之前无罪”或事后诸葛亮的做法相一致，而不是“在被证明无罪之前有罪”或预防方法。根据这些结果，专家们似乎做出了违反最大限度原则和预防措施的决定，而不是使用启发式方法。我们建议几个管理策略，以防止由于使用事后诸葛亮的方法而出现的对环境保护的偏见。(C)2013爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
Expert judgement is often used to mitigate the knowledge gaps that limit understanding of aquatic non-indigenous species (ANS) impacts (consequences) to environmental, economic, social, cultural and human health values. To understand how this uncertainty may affect expert decision making, we explored the presence and effects of uncertainty on consequence assessment for 10 ANS by scientists and managers. We hypothesized species' distribution, taxonomy and impact type will affect assessment magnitude. These hypotheses were partially supported. We also hypothesized a difference in the relationship between consequence magnitude and uncertainty, based on assessor group. This set of hypotheses was not supported, as all group assessments had a significant negative correlation between consequence and uncertainty. Both scientists and managers assigned lower consequence when faced with knowledge gaps and other forms of uncertainty. This aligns with an "innocent until proven guilty" or hindsight approach, as opposed to a "guilty until proven innocent" or precaution approach. Based on these outcomes, the experts appeared to make decisions in violation of both the maximin principle and precaution, instead using a heuristic approach. We suggest several management strategies to prevent biases against environmental protection that occur due to use of the hindsight approach. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.