Radiative Forcing and Climate Change
Radiative Forcing and Climate Change
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DOI：
10.1002/9780470686652.eae526
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发表时间：
2015-06
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影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
K. Shine
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文献类型：
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作者：
K. Shine
航空业排放二氧化碳、氮氧化物、气溶胶和水蒸气，导致气候变化。量化过去排放对气候影响的一种简单方法是辐射强迫。由 CO2 变化引起的辐射强迫得到了最好的表征，但估计非 CO2 强迫存在巨大困难 - 对于可能由航空引起的云量变化 (AIC) 来说尤其如此。最近的综合评估对 2005 年航空造成的总辐射强迫作出了最佳估计，约为 55-78 mW m−2，具体取决于是否包括 AIC，不确定性至少为 2 倍。航空 CO2 辐射强迫约占所有人类活动产生的总 CO2 强迫的 1.6%。据估计，包括非二氧化碳效应在内，航空产生的辐射强迫占所有人类活动产生的总辐射强迫的 1.3% 至 14%。提出了比较当前航空排放对未来影响的替代方法——非二氧化碳排放相对于二氧化碳的相对重要性的看法在很大程度上取决于所选择的方法以及在这些方法中选择的参数。关键词：二氧化碳；气候变化；全球温度变化潜力；全球变暖潜力；辐射强迫
Aviation causes climate change as a result of its emissions of CO2, oxides of nitrogen, aerosols, and water vapor. One simple method of quantifying the climate impact of past emissions is radiative forcing. The radiative forcing due to changes in CO2 is best characterized, but there are formidable difficulties in estimating the non-CO2 forcings – this is particularly the case for possible aviation-induced changes in cloudiness (AIC). The most recent comprehensive assessment gave a best estimate of the 2005 total radiative forcing due to aviation of about 55–78 mW m−2 depending on whether AIC was included or not, with an uncertainty of at least a factor of 2. The aviation CO2 radiative forcing represents about 1.6% of the total CO2 forcing from all human activities. It is estimated that, including the non-CO2 effects, aviation contributes between 1.3 and 14% of the total radiative forcing due to all human activities. Alternative methods for comparing the future impact of present-day aviation emissions are presented – the perception of the relative importance of the non-CO2 emissions, relative to CO2, depends considerably on the chosen method and the parameters chosen within those methods. Keywords: carbon dioxide; climate change; global temperature change potential; global warming potential; radiative forcing