Validity of simple pair formation model for HIV spread with realistic parameter setting
Validity of simple pair formation model for HIV spread with realistic parameter setting
复制标题
具有实际参数设置的 HIV 传播简单配对模型的有效性
DOI：
10.1080/08898480009525486
复制
发表时间：
2000
影响因子：
1.8
通讯作者：
M. Kakehashi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Kakehashi
与简单模型相比，真实模型具有更多的参数。在这样的现实模型中，由于可得性和估计的困难，一些参数值将不太现实。相反，如果简单模型包含了现象的基本结构，则具有较少可用可靠数值的参数的简单模型可以做出可靠的预测。在本文中，我们提出了一个简单的HIV异性传播的配对形成模型。通过将模型中涉及的参数设置为与日本的实际情况接近，我们检验了结果是否与观测结果一致。结果表明，对于一些未知的参数来说，这是一个合理的范围。讨论了如何处理不可避免的模糊参数。该模型适用于除日本以外的其他国家，并讨论了这种分析的有效性。
Realistic models have a larger number of parameters than simple models do. In such realistic models some of the parameter values will be less realistic because of the availability and the difficulty in estimation. On the contrary, a simple model with a smaller number of parameters of which reliable values are available can make reliable prediction if the simple model has involved the essential structure of phenomena. In this paper we propose a simple pair formation model for HIV spread by heterosexual transmission. By setting the parameters involved in the model as close as the actual situation in Japan, we examined whether the outcome is consistent with the observation. The outcome suggested plausible range for some unknown parameters. How to deal with inevitably ambiguous parameters is discussed. The model is ready to be used for other countries than Japan and the validity of such an analysis is also discussed.