Is There a Clash of Civilizations? Evidence from Patterns of International Conflict Involvement, 1946-97
Is There a Clash of Civilizations? Evidence from Patterns of International Conflict Involvement, 1946-97
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存在文明冲突吗？
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发表时间：
2002
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通讯作者：
G. Chiozza
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作者：
G. Chiozza
本文对亨廷顿在《文明的冲突》中的论文进行了实证检验。亨廷顿认为，属于不同文明的国家更有可能卷入国际冲突。这种效应在冷战后时期应该更加突出。文明因素还应与不同冷战集团的成员身份、边界毗连性、政权类型和现代化水平相互作用，放大或抑制这些变量的基本影响。为了测试这些假设，对 Kosimo 数据使用了 Logit 规范以及 King & Zeng 的事件稀有性解决方案。科西莫数据允许从时间和实质性角度扩展实证分析。这项研究表明，跨越文明鸿沟的国家互动并不更容易发生冲突。冷战后的头八年也未能支持亨廷顿的论点。此外，虽然文明因素改变了边界毗邻性和政权类型的影响，但这不足以产生文明遗产差异与更大冲突风险相关的条件。
This article offers an empirical test of Huntington's thesis in The Clash of Civilizations. Huntington argues that states belonging to different civilizations will have a higher propensity to be involved in international conflict. This effect should be more prominent in the post-Cold War period. The civilization factor should also interact with membership in different Cold War blocs, border contiguity, regime type, and levels of modernization, magnifying or depressing the basic effects of these variables. To test these hypotheses, a logit specification with King & Zeng's solution for rareness of events is used on the Kosimo data. The Kosimo data allow for an extension of the empirical analysis from both a temporal and a substantive point of view. This study shows that state interactions across the civilizational divide are not more conflict prone. The first eight years of the post-Cold War era also fail to give support to Huntington's thesis. Moreover, while the civilization factor modifies the effects of border contiguity and regime type, this is not sufficient to generate conditions under which differences in civilizational heritage are associated with greater risks of conflict.