Potential Demand for Respirators and Surgical Masks During a Hypothetical Influenza Pandemic in the United States
Potential Demand for Respirators and Surgical Masks During a Hypothetical Influenza Pandemic in the United States
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DOI：
10.1093/cid/civ141
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发表时间：
2015-05-01
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Koonin, Lisa M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carias, Cristina;Rainisch, Gabriel;Koonin, Lisa M.
背景。为了为流感大流行的规划提供信息，我们估计了美国医疗保健和紧急服务人员对 N95 过滤面罩呼吸器（呼吸器）的需求以及寻求护理的大流行患者对外科口罩的需求。方法。我们使用基于电子表格的模型来估计 3 种呼吸器使用场景的需求：基本情况（使用量大致遵循流行曲线）、中间需求（使用量上升到流行高峰，然后保持不变）和最大需求（所有医护人员从大流行开始时都使用呼吸器）。我们假设在基本情况下，每个重症监护病房患者每天最多需要 16 个呼吸器，每个普通病房患者每天最多需要 8 个呼吸器。门诊医护人员和紧急服务人员每天需要 4 个呼吸器。患者每天需要 1.2 个外科口罩。结果和结论。假设20%至30%的人口患病，基本需求情景下需要1.7至35亿个呼吸器，中间需求情景下需要2.6至43亿个，最大需求情景下最多需要73亿个（在所有情景下，患者需要0.1至4亿个外科口罩）。对于发病率较低且病例较少的大流行（例如类似2009年的大流行），所需的呼吸器数量会较多，因为大流行的持续时间较长。提供如此数量的呼吸器和外科口罩对美国公共卫生机构来说是一个后勤挑战。公共卫生官员必须紧急考虑在大流行期间可能与当前做法不同的呼吸器和外科口罩的替代使用策略。
Background. To inform planning for an influenza pandemic, we estimated US demand for N95 filtering facepiece respirators (respirators) by healthcare and emergency services personnel and need for surgical masks by pandemic patients seeking care.Methods. We used a spreadsheet-based model to estimate demand for 3 scenarios of respirator use: base case (usage approximately follows epidemic curve), intermediate demand (usage rises to epidemic peak and then remains constant), and maximum demand (all healthcare workers use respirators from pandemic onset). We assumed that in the base case scenario, up to 16 respirators would be required per day per intensive care unit patient and 8 per day per general ward patient. Outpatient healthcare workers and emergency services personnel would require 4 respirators per day. Patients would require 1.2 surgical masks per day.Results and Conclusions. Assuming that 20% to 30% of the population would become ill, 1.7 to 3.5 billion respirators would be needed in the base case scenario, 2.6 to 4.3 billion in the intermediate demand scenario, and up to 7.3 billion in the maximum demand scenario (for all scenarios, between 0.1 and 0.4 billion surgical masks would be required for patients). For pandemics with a lower attack rate and fewer cases (eg, 2009-like pandemic), the number of respirators needed would be higher because the pandemic would have longer duration. Providing these numbers of respirators and surgical masks represents a logistic challenge for US public health agencies. Public health officials must urgently consider alternative use strategies for respirators and surgical masks during a pandemic that may vary from current practices.