THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN EL-NINO SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION EVENTS AND TYPHOONS IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS
THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN EL-NINO SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION EVENTS AND TYPHOONS IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-7717.1995.tb00339.x
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发表时间：
1995-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
MARSCHNER, IC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
SPENNEMANN, DHR;MARSCHNER, IC
对马歇尔群岛台风历史记录的分析发现，厄尔尼诺/南方涛动现象与马歇尔群岛台风的发生之间存在着重要联系。虽然台风通常发生在更靠东的地方，但作为ENSO现象的一部分，马歇尔群岛周围的海洋沃茨变暖，会在更靠西的地方产生台风。结果表明，在ENSO年份发生台风的可能性是ENSO年份的2.6倍，在ENSO年份发生台风的可能性为71%，而在非ENSO年份发生台风的可能性仅为26%。这对规划和公共安全有影响，有关当局不妨注意到这一点。
An analysis of the historic record of typhoons in the Marshall Islands has identified a significant association between the occurrence of the EI Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) and the occurrence of typhoons in the Marshall Islands. Whilst typhoons normally occur further to the east, the warming of the ocean waters around the Marshall Islands, as part of the ENSO phenomenon, generates typhoons further to the west. The results suggest that typhoons are 2.6 times more likely to occur during ENSO years, with a 71 per cent chance of a typhoon striking during an ENSO year, and only a 26 per cent chance of one happening during a non-ENSO year. This has implications for planning and public safety, which the relevant authorities may wish to take note of.