Long-term prognosis after recovery from myocardial infarction: a nine year follow-up of the Perth Coronary Register.
Long-term prognosis after recovery from myocardial infarction: a nine year follow-up of the Perth Coronary Register.
复制标题
心肌梗塞恢复后的长期预后：珀斯冠状动脉登记处九年随访。
作者：
Craig A. Martin;Peter L. Thompson;Bruce K. Armstrong;Michael S. T. Hobbs;Nicholas;De;Klerk
1971年珀斯冠状动脉登记处登记的心肌梗死患者随访9年。该登记册是一项以社区为基础的研究，使用标准方法和标准，作为世界卫生组织合作调查的一部分。在研究的1078例患者中，77%的患者在前24小时存活，62%的患者在前28天存活; 0.3%的患者失访。666例28天存活的患者，1年、5年和9年的粗生存率分别为88%、67%和52%。54个变量与心肌梗死后存活28天的患者的生存率之间的关系通过寿命表方法和对数秩检验进行了检查，然后通过拟合比例风险模型的数据。重要的预后因素是年龄、性别、既往心肌梗死、卒中、糖尿病和高血压史、心动过速、低血压和心律失常（作为短期并发症）。最合适的数学描述的联合影响的预后因素是一个乘法模型，没有相互作用。
Patients registered by the 1971 Perth Coronary Register as having suffered a myocardial infarction were followed up for 9 years. The Register was a community-based study that used standard methods and criteria as part of a World Health Organization collaborative investigation. Of the 1078 patients studied, 77% survived the first 24 hr and 62% the first 28 days; 0.3% were lost to follow-up. For the 666 patients alive at 28 days, the crude 1, 5, and 9 year survival rates were 88%, 67%, and 52%, respectively. The relationship between 54 variables and the survival of patients alive 28 days after myocardial infarction was examined by life-table methods and the log rank test, and then by fitting a proportional hazards model to the data. The important prognostic factors were age, sex, past history of myocardial infarction, stroke, diabetes and hypertension, tachycardia at presentation, hypotension at presentation, and the occurrence of arrhythmias as short-term complications. The most appropriate mathematical description of the joint effects of the prognostic factors was a multiplicative model with no interaction.